Guest Article: The Goat District
One big mistake we often see in dynasty is overvaluing rookie picks, rookies and the potential we think they have entering the NFL. This trend is especially true this time of year. In some cases, even undrafted players who seem to find themselves in an ideal situation can become a golden ticket if you know how to take advantage of the hype.
In our rookie draft last off-season, being the Colts fan that I am, I drafted Josh Ferguson as a late flyer (5th or 6th round) after he signed with Indy as an undrafted free agent. I felt like I finally had the next big Indy running back after hearing all the hype on my favorite podcasts and felt even better about myself for how cheap I got him. Little did I know that this tiny minnow was going to help me catch a big fish.
After not being selected in the 2016 NFL Draft, Ferguson was signed by the Colts on May 2. By the summer, his stock value had sky rocketed and everyone was talking like he was the next coming of Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles. Even sites like Rotoviz were publishing articles about “the rise of the pass-catching back”. I mean, they we’re correct; pass catching backs certainly have become more valuable in fantasy football, especially PPR. However, Josh Ferguson was definitely not the one leading the movement, as we quickly found out.
On the other side of the track, Tevin Coleman’s stock had taken a small dent. He started the 2015 season as the starter, but then an early season injury opened things up for Devonta Frreemen. At this point, Freeman was entering 2016 as the clear number one starter and the Coleman hype train from only an off-season ago had all but disappeared. Talk was that Coleman had no value in the passing game, and at most would be a goal-line back type backing up his teammate in the running game.
I recognized the shift in stock value right away by simply following the old tried and true, “sell high and buy low”. I was sure Coleman had a better pedigree then Ferguson based on where they were drafted. or not drafted in Ferguson’s case, as well as by what I had seen watching film. Stats are great and all, but I still believe the old eye test is the most telling when evaluating football talent and forecasting their upside.
|7/14/2016 9:11 AM||GOAT District FC||Trades||Received Coleman, Tevin ATL (RB) from Cobras
Traded Ferguson, Josh IND (RB) to Cobras
With all this in mind, I opened up my tablet and put in an offer to the Coleman owner. In no time at all, he accepted the trade and I had myself a big piece for my dynasty team. As you can see below, Tevin Coleman broke out last season, in spite of his teammates success. The Kyle Shanahan offense became the best 1-2 running back punch we had seen in years. On top of that, to everyone’s surprise, Coleman became more then just a goal-line back or two down back, and was immensely involved in the passing game. Even though they played the same amount of games in 2016, we can clearly see how both players went in completely different directions.
I am not writing this article to gloat about how I stole Tevin Coleman from a fellow league mate, even though we all know how good that feels. This article is here to point out that it’s that time of year again. Hello! Wake up and smell those roses! There is ample opportunity out there with rookie values being sky high, to get your own “steal” of the off-season. Now is the time to take advantage of the hype that is currently out there for some of these rookies. All many owners see are glitters of hope and potential of high ceilings, which opens the door for you to sneak in with a steal of your own, while they are blinded by the shinny lights.
Running backs who’s value have taken a hit that you should target this off-season: Todd Gurley, Ameer Abdullah & Duke Johnson