With a few more months of the Fantasy off-season behind us, it is time to once again look at the players we as Dynasty owners need to buy or sell on. If you missed the first, I suggest taking a look at http://ffdynasty260.com/dynasty-buy-low-sell-high/ to see just why it is time to let guys like Demarco Murray and Jordy Nelson go. These first couple guys may ruffle some feathers, so this should be fun. Here is the second list of guys that I am buying or selling on heading into 2017:
Antonio Brown may be one of the most controversial ‘Sell High’ candidates I’ve talked about, so don’t worry, I come prepared. After yet another elite-level Fantasy season out of AB, there are a few key issues to address before we head into 2017. In PPR formats, Brown’s Fantasy points on a per game basis have looked something like this:
The first issue here is the obvious, a slow, yet significant decline in Fantasy production over the past three years. Throw in the undeniable health concern and age of Ben Roethlisberger, and the resurgence of Le’Veon Bell to the lineup, there is undoubtedly a reason to expect a continuing decline. Brown’s numbers have historically taken a hit when Bell is in the game, not to mention the hit he takes when Big Ben is out.
One of my personal favorite articles I’ve stumbled across is in regards to the age decline of players https://www.profootballfocus.com/age-of-decline-wr/ Antonio Brown will be 29 this year, and as history has shown us, he is headed for his decline, not to mention it has already somewhat begun.
The bottom line is this; Antonio Brown’s ADP according to MFL (4/17/2017) currently has him as the third player and the first WR off the board in Dynasty/Keeper leagues. To me this is insanity, if you can go out and sell AB for a younger WR like Evans, Cooper, or Hopkins, now is the time. Not to mention, clearly some owners still have Odell Beckham behind Brown, also insanity. Fast forward to next year’s off-season and you’re looking at the argument of “Well, Brown will be 30 this year I’m not paying that much for him”.
At first glance, this may be odd, but at this point, Brown’s value is at an all-time high. Take advantage of this while you can, and although it hurts to sell him, you’ll be doing your Dynasty team a favor in the long-run.
As if having Antonio Brown as a sell-high candidate wasn’t enough, now we’re talking about selling Gronk? After going back and forth on buying or selling this beast of a man, it makes the most sense at this point to sell him.
Unfortunately, Rob Gronkowski is also a guy that has come in to this ‘buy or sell’ debate. My initial rebuttal to this argument was the recent extension of Jason Witten, Antonio Gates lingering the past couple years, and Delanie Walker continuing to produce. However, it is definitely time to realize that similar to Antonio Brown, Gronk’s value according to MFL’s ADP is still very high. He is currently the 21st player off the board for Dynasty/Keeper leagues, and the first TE off the board.
Gronk’s age is worth noting as he will be 28 this year, and although the history of the TE position as a whole, health-wise, is solid, unfortunately he hasn’t aged as well as many other TEs. Gronkowksi hasn’t played a full season since 2011, he is on his eleventh injury, his eighth surgery due to injuries, four separate back injuries, and an ACL tear. There is no denying, Gronk wins you weeks and is a clear difference maker at the TE position, at this point, I would rather sell him for a young WR or RB with upside.
This buy/sell debates has given me fits, so let’s look at this realistically. This is how I would be approaching Gronk…
If the owner is low on him, look to acquire him for cheap. Don’t overpay.
If YOU own Gronk, sniff out the believers, and take advantage of his value while you can.
You meant to say buy Tyreek Hill low right? Wrong. “But he is only a rookie and Andy Reid says he will be getting a bigger role in the offense!” I am here to tell you to chill out with this Tyreek Hill hype, take a step back and sell this guy. One of the first articles I did was called ‘Pump The Brakes’ and Tyreek was one of the main guys I focused on. I won’t get too into details, so if you’re not convinced, you can check that article out here and see some of the numbers for yourself. http://ffdynasty260.com/pump-the-brakes/
Let’s take a second and realize that Andy Reid is the same guy that said Jamaal Charles was their ‘guy’ heading into 2016. Also, bringing in Jeremy Maclin from Philadelphia was supposed to be promising, and as of late, Maclin’s Fantasy relevance is diminishing. After getting burnt on Cordarelle Patterson and Tyler Lockett over the past couple years, this Tyreek Hill situation has given me flashbacks of burning an early round pick on these type of return guys, speedsters, and “trick-play” esque players. Very fun to watch, explosiveness, speed, and just typically not your consistent producers from a Fantasy standpoint.
Here is the bottom line…Is there a chance that Hill breaks out and becomes a solid Fantasy WR? Sure. There is no denying this guys speed and athleticism, but from a Fantasy perspective, his ADP and current value is getting out of hand. In a recent Dynasty start up draft, Hill went in the second round. The SECOND…round. Sure, this may be If you are an owner, there is a pretty penny to be paid right now for Tyreek Hill, and I will be all over selling this guy. To be fair, I do not hate Tyreek, I have no problem taking a late-round flier on the guy. I saw the same explosiveness as you all did, but the value he currently has is absolutely insane. If I am wrong with this one and somehow KC turns into a pass-heavy offense with Tyreek as a the featured WR1, so be it. The return you can get on this guy is too much to pass up at this point.
At first glance, Latavius Murray heading to Minnesota seems like a very solid option for Fantasy owners with the departure of Adrian Peterson. After finishing the 2015 season as the 18th RB in PPR, many owners were banking on Latavius as a great breakout candidate. According to RotoWire, Oakland had the second ranked OL in to 2016, so the breakout potential was clear. Murray ended 2016 as the 12th RB in PPR formats, but he was actually outside the top 20 in Fantasy points per touch in weeks 1-16. Inefficiency behind the 2nd best OL in Football, just passing 1,000 scrimmage yards (1,027 in weeks 1-16), and now heading to Minnesota who had the 30th ranked OL in 2016, I am selling Murray. As of now, Minnesota has not made any significant changes to their OL situation for 2017. His return may not be the best right now, but he could very easily become irrelevant in the Fantasy world, I’d rather buy Jerick McKinnon for dirt cheap.
Other sell-high candidates: Brandon Marshall, Lamar Miller, and Ty Montgomery.
Willie Snead has always been a guy that I have been fairly high on, and heading into 2017 this is definitely the most excited I have been to grab him. In 2016 Drew Brees targeted his weapons 617 times, and the only issue with Snead I had previously, was the number of weapons in New Orleans. With the departure of Brandin Cooks, there are 117 targets and 78 receptions that will need to go elsewhere. I do believe Coby Fleener is poised to break out, but Snead is the guy with the cheapest price tag right now with the biggest return on investment potential.
In his first two seasons, Snead has had 102 and 103 targets, respectively. With a current ADP for Dynasty and Keeper leagues on MFL of 62 overall and the 34th WR off the board, this is great value for a guy in a pass-heavy offense, now without Cooks. Michael Thomas has proven his talent and play making ability, but don’t sleep on Willie Snead, and targets will not be an issue for him.
There has been some serious hate on Kelvin Benjamin lately, and whether it is warranted or not, his price tag has gotten very appealing. After starting off the 2016 hot against Denver, owners were disappointed after a few weeks of going rogue. Despite a pretty disappointing season, Benjamin still ended with 117 targets, 1380 air yards, and 7 TDs. What really sparked this buy low on KB was a recent Twitter debate comparing him to Dorial Green-Beckham. The fact that this was even a comparison that some owners are having is absolutely mind boggling to me.
Let’s take a second and also realize that this was an atrocious year for Cam Newton, and personally, I don’t see this bad of a year coming from Cam again. I expect Kelvin to return to full speed in 2017 after he was still getting back to 100% after his ACL tear. Ted Ginn has had just under 100 targets the past two seasons, and despite Ginn hardly getting any respect in the Fantasy community, there is no denying he’s been hurting KB’s value. Devin Funchess is someone that also has potential to break out in 2017, but Kelvin has the size, the talent, and involvement in the offense that I want on my Dynasty rosters. Benjamin is currently the 26th WR off the board in MFL Dynasty and Keeper leagues, and is clearly being discounted in the Dynasty community, go out and make some offers and see just how low he is being valued.
Here is a name that isn’t exactly a popular one lately in the Dynasty community, but I believe more towards draft day and the start of the season, this could change. Minnesota is typically a team that I do not care for their pass-catchers. I have never been a huge Stefon Diggs fan and this offense is in a strange state searching for their identity with a bad OL. There are only a couple players that had establish roles in 2016; Kyle Rudolph, Diggs, and Thielen. Diggs ended the year with 111 targets, while Thielen ended with 92 with just under 1,000 yards. Oh, not to mention, he only started in 10 games. For the second half of the season, Thielen was a solid WR2, borderline WR1.
After having just 20 targets in his first two season, Thielen wasn’t even on the fantasy roster. Cordarelle Patterson and Charles Johnson believers were out there, and nothing ever came of either. For 2017 both Johnson and Patterson are gone, leaving just Diggs, Thielen, and Laquan Treadwell. There are many Treadwell believers out there, but if you’re looking for a dirt cheap price (Currently the 44th WR off the board in MFL Dynasty and Keeper leagues) with a solid return on investment, go grab Thielen.
After heading into 2016 with some fairly rightfully warranted hype, Ameer Abdullah isn’t experiencing the same love heading into 2017. There are many owners out there who have given up on him, and his current ADP at MFL is the 21st RB off the board for Dynasty and Keeper leagues.
Yes, Abdullah played less than two games in 2016 due to a foot injury, but he was very efficient that first game and he totaled over 150 scrimmage yards between the two games. He was also averaged .98 Fantasy points per touch in a ½ PPR format in that time, a very efficient number. Again, this is a small sample size, so this must be taken with a grain of salt, but the bottom line is that he is being undervalued and will head into 2017 as the lead back once again. If you’re in need of a RB for 2017, Abdullah is definitely someone that you should get out there and gauge his value, see if you can’t land a lead back with some solid upside, for a fraction of the cost.
Other buy-low candidates: Giovani Bernard, Cameron Meredith, and Marvin Jones.