Dynasty Buy Low & Sell High 3.0
Despite the season slowly creeping closer, the end of June isn’t exactly prime Fantasy Football time. Those of you who are in some serious Dynasty leagues however, love this time of year. This is the time of year when you gather all those little bits and pieces of useful information that help you get an edge on your league mates who wait until pre-season to start their homework. Getting that slight edge can be the difference between paying up a 3rd round rookie draft pick for Willie Snead, and waiting until pre-season and paying up a guy like Davante Adams for him. (*Side note, yes, these are real trades I’ve seen over the off-season).
Dynasty owners are always looking for the peak times to buy and sell players, so there truly is no off-season. The first game to look out for is the Hall of Fame Game. This is the kickoff date of the pre-season, which will feature the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals in Canton Ohio. Now is the time to start getting that edge on your opponents, because before we know it, we’re going to be watching pre-season games. The last Dynasty Buy Low & Sell High was released a few weeks back, and can be seen here: Dynasty Buy Low & Sell High 2.0
The ADP data that I use here is for Dynasty startup leagues as of June 25th, and can be found here: MFL ADP
I start this article off with Carlos Hyde, because every time I’ve checked FantasyPros to see where his current Dynasty rank is, he still seems to sit around that top 10-15 range. If there is any starting RB that has a chance of losing his starting role this year, look no further than Carlos Hyde. From the reports of his ‘laziness’, possible issues with fitting in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and Shanahan’s apparent interest in rookie Joe Williams, there are many red flags that are coming up. Hyde looks great when he is healthy, but he simply cannot stay on the field. This whole situation with the Ohio State RB struggling to stay on the field screams Beanie Wells 2.0. If you can sell Hyde for his current face value of that top 10-15 RB range, I’d be all over it.
Carlos Hyde is currently the 51st player off the board, with an ADP of 57.52. Derrick Henry, Ty Montgomery, and Tevin Coleman are three RBs going shortly after Hyde, and as of now, offer just as much upside as Hyde, in my opinion of course. Carlos Hyde absolutely has the potential to burn owners this season, as owners are beginning to sell high on him, but if he cannot stay on the field, he could just as likely fizzle out in that putrid SF offense.
To be honest, I never thought that the Dynasty community would even need a section of an article dedicated to selling Marshawn Lynch. The hype is very real at this point, and Beastmode’s current ADP is 63.68. I get it, Oakland’s line as fantastic, the hometown return has Lynch owners ecstatic, and he looks great in pre-season activities. Let’s realize that the last time Lynch played in Seattle was 2015, and he started in 6 games. He was struggling with hamstring strains and a sports hernia this year, not a significant injury, but absolutely an issue.
I would absolutely never pay this much for Lynch. If I miss out on one or two solid Marshawn Lynch years, I am perfectly fine with that. Some notable players going after Lynch according to this current ADP are Tevin Coleman, Ty Montgomery, Martavis Bryant, and Golden Tate. All of these guys have for more long term value for a Dynasty league. If you own Lynch, get out there and shop him. Find the guys in your league that are expecting a resurgence and the classic Marshawn Lynch we all know, I’ll sell him and smile as I grab Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington very late in startup drafts. BONUS: Richard and Washington are buy low candidates.
If you’re a Ty Montgomery truther, it is likely you think Ty is the next stud RB ready to break out in Green Bay. The former WR turned RB is currently the 59th player off the board, with a ridiculous 66.21 ADP. Don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of grabbing the next Packers RB with that backfield as open as it is, but the 59th player off the board? Absolutely not. Some notable names going after him are Tevin Coleman (again), Ameer Abdullah, Willie Snead, and Hunter Henry. I’d sell Ty for any of these guys in a heartbeat.
The reason I was so quick to add Ty into this mix of sell high players, was after a follower submitted a trade that was somewhere along the lines of Ty Montgomery for a top 4 rookie pick this year. Ouch. Give me Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, or Cook all day over Ty. If you own him and can sell him for this type of robbery, do it. Oh, and the Packers also drafted 3 rookies this year. This backfield is completely wide open for the taking in my opinion, and Ty will absolutely not be the guy I’m investing in at this price.
According to current MFL ADP, Dez Bryant is the 11th WR off the board and the 24th overall player off the board. Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, and Sammy Watkins are the next WRs off the board. This is Dynasty we’re talking about, and this is insanity. To be fair, I, along with anyone else who has played Fantast Football in recent years, am well aware of the upside the Dez brings. Again, this is Dynasty. Dez is turning 29 this season, and hasn’t played a full season or cracked 1,000 yards since 2014. I understand the upside that Dez brings, but from a Dynasty standpoint, I’d take any of the previously mentioned players for him.
Jordan Reed kicks this segment off for us here at FFD260, as he sits with his typical high rank and high ADP. According to MFL’s current ADP Jordan Reed is 41.19 and is the 61st player off the board. In 12 team leagues, this makes him a late 3rd, early 4th round draft pick. Some notable names coming after him are Stefon Diggs, Marcus Mariota, Alshon Jeffery, and Isaiah Crowell. I would take any of these guys for the long haul in a Dynasty league over Reed, without hesitation.
Over the past four seasons, Reed has played in 9, 11, 14, and 12 games, making him yet to play a full season. Recently in 2016 he recorded his 5th concussion since College, not including any potential ones that were not accounted for, because let’s be honest, they’re not always recorded. Not to mention he’s had a number of hamstring and knee strains, as well as a shoulder separation in late 2016. There is no doubt that Reed is a difference maker at the TE position, but with his injury history and current ADP, he is an absolute sell high for me.
This time of year is one that I tend to spend a lot of time viewing the current rookie RBs and their situations, and determining which ones have easy or difficult paths to a starting role. Enter Elijah McGuire. I’m all for buying into Bilal Powell, if you followed FFD260 last year during the season, Powell was my “start of the week” on multiple occasions. I love the idea of Powell in Redraft leagues, and think he will definitely be a solid option again in 2017, but from a Dynasty standpoint, I’m not going out and investing heavily in him.
Powell will turn 29 this season, and has struggled to really offer much Fantasy relevance outside of 2016. Matt Forte has damn near gotten to the point where fantasy owners won’t even touch him. McGuire has a far easier path to a starting role than most rookie RBs this year, and is the 97th player off the board according to MFL ADP. Not to mention, in Rookie only drafts, he’s currently the 50th player off the board. Again…Value.
Jonathon Williams is definitely one of my favorite guys to buy low on this off-season. The second year RB in Buffalo is unfortunately stuck behind one of the biggest names of the past years in LeSean McCoy. Mike Gillislee touched the ball just 110 times in 2016, and ended the season with 9 TDs. As we know, he is out of Buffalo and now in New England, leaving Jonathon Wiliams as the clear backup and handcuff to Shady. One of the most ridiculous stats I’ve seen this off-season is that all Buffalo RBs ran for 2.56 yards before contact in 2016. Similar to Oakland, the teams with excellent offensive lines, tend to result in solid production from the RB position, regardless of who is in the backfield (See Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington). McCoy turns 29 in July, and was dealing with multiple soft-tissue issues, lingering throughout 2016.
Devin Funchess isn’t exactly a big name guy that anyone should go too crazy about rostering, but we’re talking buy low. Low, low. Funchess is currently the 231st player off board according to MFL’s ADP. This is just absurd to me. The additions of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel have led many to believe that the Carolina offense could be due for a schematic change. Kelvin Benjamin is a guy I am not giving up on like many owners out there, but Funchess as the 231st player off the board has me picturing Funchess holding a sign that says “Value”.
Funchess has had just 54 receptions on 121 targets in his career, but has put up 844 yards and 9 TDs. Let’s also realize that in 2016 Benjamin had 63 receptions on 118 targets for 941 yards and 7 TDs. As stated previously, I’m not giving up on KB like many owners are this off-season, but if I’m wrong about Benjamin, Funchess at his current price has me buying shares of him wherever I can.
One of my favorite prospects heading into 2016 was Josh Doctson. Heading into a situation with an up and coming QB in Kirk Cousins, on an explosive offense with a couple old WRs in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Unfortunately, his rookie season was cut short due to his Achilles injury, after catching two passes in two weeks for 66 yards. With the departure of Garcon and Jackson, 40% of the production of the Redskins offense in 2016 is now up for grabs. Terrelle Pryor has obviously been the big name guy in Washington that owners are buying, personally I’m not one of the many Pryor believers. Not to mention, we’re talking about Dynasty here, and Doctson is an absolute buy low candidate.
Similar to Devin Funchess, Will Fuller is a guy that owners won’t be too crazy about owning, but the value right now is ridiculous. Fuller played in 14 games his rookie year, and we all know how disappointing DeAndre Hopkins was in 2016, Fuller had the exact same QB throwing him the ball. 47 receptions on 92 targets, finishing the season with 635 yards and 2 TDs, results in Fuller getting no respect this off-season.
Will Fuller lost some respect coming into 2016 due to his height, weight, and below average hand size. I’ve always been a fan of buying into a WR2 that is opposite of a stud WR, similar to Sterling Shepard and Martavis Bryant. I don’t expect the QB situation in Houston to improve immediately, but from a long-term perspective, Fuller is a very cheap guy to buy right now, with some obvious upside, even if it’s the Ted Ginn or DeSean Jackson, boom or bust, big play type of upside.