By: Kyle Richardson (Twitter: @krich1532)
Dynasty Tiers: QBs
When ranking players, I place them into tiers instead of normal numerical rankings. I’m not one to split hairs on certain players. In a tier, I could be happy owning any numbers of players.
Tiers are as follows:
Tier 1: Top players at the position. Age is factored in, but elite is elite. You are getting the best here.
Tier 2:Up and comers. They may not have a lengthy track record, but they are trending up. They will be elite soon.
Tier 3:Reliable vets. These guys may or may not provide elite stats, but they are trustworthy. Age could be catching up though.
Tier 4:Risky options galore. A mix of seasoned vets and younger players that have not established a track record, but will be getting their shot soon.
Tier 5:The rest. Rookies with no experience and bench vets who could be an injury away from starting.
In this group, Rodgers and Wilson have the best track records in the best offenses. Luck still needs to show me something. He hasn’t had the same weapons or the same offensive line, but he has the talent. 2017 may be the last year to really prove what he has before fantasy owners start the cool on him.
Out of this group, I think Winston and Mariota have the highest upside. Both have new weapons to work with in 2017 and have age on their side. Derek Carr has been really good so far, but I don’t think he has the ceiling as the other two. Again though, we are just splitting hairs. Prescott makes this list after just one season, but he has everything he needs to succeed in Dallas. Another great year could cement his place here but a bad year could drop him for me. People will probably be shocked that I put Wentz in this group, but I like his talent a lot. He is a work in progress, but his age and upside place him here for me in dynasty formats.
Guys like Rivers, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Manning and Palmer make it into this tier, because of the offense around them. It’s not like Jay Cutler last year in Chicago who wouldn’t have made this spot. They have actual weapons around them and can be useful in fantasy if you missed out on one of the top QBs. Brees and Brady have been two of the best fantasy QBs (and overall QBs) in our lifetime, but their age make them risky in a dynasty format. You’ll get good numbers, but for how many more year? That’s why I leave them out of tier 1 and 2.
Cam Newton was in tier 1 just a year ago, but it looks as if Carolina will be trying to protect him more moving forward. He will see some fantasy regression. Stafford, Ryan, Cousins and Dalton still have a few years left and provide some great upside. They don’t quite give you the elite return to be in tier 1 and they don’t have the youth to be in tier 2, but they are tier 3A, how about that?
You may be taking some risk with everyone in this tier. Bortles seems to be on his last leg if he doesn’t turn out a better season. The same may be said for Tannehill, who has yet to really come into his own. Taylor doesn’t have enough to be a top fantasy QB for me, even with the weapons around him. Garoppolo is one injury away from manning the helm of the best offense in the NFL, but it will likely be a trade that gets him the opportunity to start. Glennon finally gets his shot to start in Chicago, but we don’t know for sure what he will bring in 16 games. Hoyer has played well in stints with the Bears and Texans (except the playoffs) during the last two years. Kyle Shanahan gets a chance to work some magic. I think he’s a great backup option or late round flyer in 2 QB leagues. Smith just offers you a backup option. If you spend a pick early on a QB, Smith can be the backup you grab at the least minute.
I think Mahomes will be in the tier 2 category within 2 years and possibly tier 1 within 3-4. I love his talent and upside and think KC has the weapons in place to make that offense dynamic as soon as the Alex Smith reign is over. Goff is going to be a bust due to how high he was taken. I still think it was a huge mistake for LA to move up. He’s going to be the comparison to Sam Bradford in 5 years. Trubisky and Watson seem similar to me for fantasy. Both will get a shot soon, but it’s more about the incumbent on their team screwing up. I give Watson a slight bump here, I think he has better intangibles. Three sets of QBs make this list for Denver, Cleveland and Minnesota. We don’t know for sure what is going to be happening in 2017 or beyond with these QBs.