By: The Dynasty Trade Guys
Twitter: Jason (@Jason_Nygren) and Ben (@B_Schmitke)
Trades. Dynasty Football’s bread and butter. In most leagues, trading is much easier in theory and when it comes to actually pulling the trigger many guys have trouble making the big deal. One of the the biggest fears is “losing the trade” and it causes many people to freeze. And that’s understandable, but in most cases the fear comes from a lack of knowledge and a lack of conviction. The best dynasty players are the most informed and the most willing to take calculated risks.
Each month Jason (@Jason_Nygren) and Ben (@B_Schmitke) are going to look at some of the most even trades we’ve seen in our leagues, on twitter, and ones submitted to us. The goal is to help keep you informed and confident to make your team better with every trade.
Diggs, Rawls, Perriman
D Henry, 2.01, 2.08, 2.09
Jason Nygren (@Jason_Nygren): I always run through a few checks when I’m evaluating a trade offer. First I always ask who is the best overall player on either side of the deal, because in many cases, the team getting the best player ends up winning, no matter how much value is on the other side. Here i see Diggs as the best dynasty value. The second question I ask is how far behind is the best player on the other side of the trade, and in this case it’s D. Henry. Henry is in an interesting position in Tennessee, the heir apparent to the RB job. For me Diggs is ahead of Henry, but it’s getting close.
For me this trade is decided in the smaller pieces. Many are down on Rawls but the truth is we just don’t know how the Seattle situation will shake out. There is a real chance Lacy comes to camp at 300 pounds and is a non-factor. So he still has value as a flex guy. And Perriman is one of my breakout WR’s in 2017, I think he also has a flex floor this year with a ceiling of a WR2 in the next 2-3. The other side is balanced out by 3 2nd round picks. Now this is a very deep draft and I believe that there will be productive players coming even late in the 2nd round. But even with that cavet, the success rate (top 30 positionally) of 2nd round picks hover around 45%, so you’d have a chance of getting 1, maybe 2 guys who could be start. I know everyone loves the potential of draft picks (I know, David Johnson was a 2nd round pick!!) but for me, I’ll take the known quantities here, a top 15 WR (Diggs), an unknown with past production (Rawls), and Perriman, potential breakout WR (who we have seen actually play NFL football). Thoughts Ben?
Ben Schmitke (@B_Schmitke): There are always going to be a few “unknowns” when it comes to reviewing other people’s trades. Who sent it, what does their roster look like, and how many picks do they have stashed away? I’m going to remove those elements from all reviews.
The player with the most credibility is easily Diggs as he is the WR1 in MN. However, being the WR1 in MN is also like being the the skinniest dude at fat camp. You look better than the rest of the guys, but that’s because…well…look at the others around him. Rawls in my opinion is in a situation where his career is either going to boom or bust after this season. A team doesn’t bring in a guy like Cheeseburger Eddie, who according to ESPN is currently the lead back, if they think the talent they currently have will get the to another Super Bowl. If Rawls doesn’t take over and become the RB1 in Seattle, he will become a backup for some other team, or his current team for the remainder of his career. Perriman, though not the best player on this side of the trade, I think he is the most valuable. Wallace, the WR1 in Baltimore has 7 years on Perriman. Once Wallace is out of the picture, Perriman will be a top 10 WR, assuming they have a QB like Flacco who can help his production.
D. Henry & picks… I will admit, in my dynasty league I tried for months, MONTHS, to get D. Henry. But with him more than less likely taking over the backfield by the end of the season he is the Golden Goose in this trade. Yes, you have Demarco Murray in front of him. HOWEVER, in 2018 & 2019 there is a $0 cap hit for both years. Tennessee drafted a great RB in D. Henry. We have seen a taste of what he can do and I expect big things from this guy by the end of the season. The only way Murray find himself as a Titan next season is if D. Henry is physically unable to play. The Draft Picks in this trade hold little to no water in this. Assuming they are in a 12 man league, giving up the 13th pick is somewhat valuable. The 8th and 9th picks are shots in the dark. In my league last year, Wentz was taken in the late 2nd round and Prescott was taken late in the 3rd round. There is value out there, but striking gold on those picks is hard to do.
S. Watkins, 1.04
Ben: Looking at this trade right away I think ZEKE ZEKE ZEKE. But let’s dive into this before I start drooling.
Watkins, though playing 3 less games in 2015 than he did in 2014, had 65 more yards, and 3 more touchdowns on 33 less targets and 5 less receptions. He had the talent to fight for a top 5 WR spot. Had was the key word to notice because now, he neither has the QB, nor the health to do so. Personally I think Watkins is a health hazard and I wouldn’t touch unless I could steal him in a trade.
1.04… Thankfully this draft is pretty loaded with talent at both the WR and RB positions. But the big thing we have to look at is PLACEMENT, PLACEMENT, PLACEMENT! Coleman, Treadwell, Doctson, top 3 rated WR’s in last year’s draft.
● Coleman – 10 games played, 33 receptions on 74 target, 413 yards and 3 TD’s. Not bad as a rookie. He’ll get better this year, but not a top 10.
● Treadwell – 1 game plays, 1 reception on 3 targets. Still a WR3 on a team of meh WRs.
● Doctson – 2 games played, 2 receptions on 7 targets. WR3 at best on a team with Jackson and Garcon in front of him.
Zeke – 15 games plays, 322 attempts 1,631 rushing yards 15 TD’s, 32 receptions of 40 targets 363 yards and 1 TD.
I don’t think any RB coming fromt his draft will have a offensive line like Zeke had. Looking at the teams that need a young RB, Colts, Saints, Panthers and Jets. I truly believe that even a guy like Leonard Fournette as a starting from day one doesn’t even break the top 10 list for running backs.
Taking the point totals of Watkins and whoever is picked at 1.04 will not come close to the point total that Zeke is going to put up when it comes to fantasy. Zeke + any WR picked from FA > Watkins + 1.04
You have a chance to change my mind, but right now, who ever ends with Zeke in this trade won this trade. Your thoughts?
Jason: Well I first have to say, I’m Jason and I’m a Sammy Watkins truther. Watkins has been underwhelming in his first 3 seasons in the league to say the least. He has always had issues with injuries but the same was said about Julio Jones his first few years in the league. To me, 2015 showed the potential that Watkins has as a stud wide receiver. Once he recovered from his early season injury, starting in week 8 he lit the league on fire. He had 5 games of 100+ yards and 7 TDs. 7 TDs in 8 weeks! This is unrealistic but if you extrapolate that over an entire season thats 1800 yards and 14 TDs. Even 75% of that is a top 10 WR season. So I see Watkins’ potential and still see him has a top 12 dynasty WR.
The 1.04 is intriguing here because it likely means you are getting what many say is an elite RB prospect (Fournette, Mixon, or McCaffery) or Corey Davis. So I like the pick and if you are really sold on all 3 RBs and you think that all can become top 15 RBs in the fantasy then the pick should at least have your attention.
And now we get to the obvious prize of the deal, Ezekiel Elliott. Ben laid out his stats above so I don’t need to reiterate here, but Zeke is a freak. He is playing behind the best line in football (which is also a relatively young line, and that matters). He also has a top 15 QB in Dak and an elite receiver in Bryant. This makes it so Zeke cannot be completely zoned in on and shut down, because they are just too talented across the board. I believe Zeke will be a top 5 RB for the next 5-7 years, which for running backs is an ridiculously long shelf life. Zeke locks down your RB1 without thought or question long term and no other team in your league can confidently say that.
Again, situation matters. But it is very difficult to see a situation where moving Zeke for this package makes sense. I like Watkins but the variance is still a bit too high for me to give up a sure thing in Zeke. I like the 1.04 but I’d prefer the pick be higher so I could have my pick of the elite RBs. A package that would tempt me as a Zeke owner would be: Watkins, 1.01, and a 2018 1st. That would be getting in the ball park and let me have the upside of Watkins, Fournette, and hope for an early 1st next season. But even then it would be tough to let go of the man who will likely be the most productive fantasy football player for the next decade. I go Zeke!
J Howard, Pryor, 1.06
Jason: It’s pretty obvious here, DJ is obviously the prize of this trade. He’s going 1.01 in many dynasty start-ups and is the whole package as a runner. So the only question is if the package is enough to surpass that. First lets look at Howard. Howard had a successful rookie season in Chicago, stealing away the starting job from Jeremy Langford. He finished with over 1600 total yards and 7 TDs. Now the big concern is the Chicago offense and if they will be on the field enough to allow a repeat of that performance. Pryor was another 2016 breakout star, leading the Browns in receiving yards and breaking the 1000 yard mark. Adding to that is the 1.06, which looks to be either one of the second tier RB’s (Kamara/Foreman), Howard, or someone like John Ross or JuJu Smith-Schuster (For me it’s always helpful to put names to a 1st round pick, it helps to wrap your mind around a more realistic value).
Even with all of these assets, I would still take DJ, his upside is just too high and too difficult to replace. The only caveat I have here is if your team is in a major rebuild mode and Johnson is literally the only stud you have. This is an option for a package that could start to make sense, although if I’m moving Johnson before the draft I would want to be getting back at least a pick in the top 3 in this years draft as well as future firsts. If this was Howard/Pryor/1.02 and my team was miserable, I might take it.
Ben: I agree, DJ is the golden nugget in this trade. Trying to match value for this guy is tough to do. Howard in 2016 1,313 rushing yards & 6 rushing TD’s. He also had 29 receptions on 50 targets for 298 yards & 1 TD. He was 2nd in the league in rushing. However, DJ had 79 less rushing yards than Howard, but had 10 more rushing TD’s.
Pryor, was 12 in targets, but 27th in completions. David Johnson had 20 less targets than Pryor, but had 3 more receptions. Both of which had 4 receiving TD’s. Pryor had 128 more receiving yards than DJ.
Let’s recap that…
● Howard had 79 more rushing yards than DJ
● DJ had 10 more touchdowns
● Pryor had 128 more eceiving yards
● Pryor had 20 more targets but 3 less receptions than DJ
DJ is LITERALLY just as good as Pryor and Howard.
1.06 is a the trojan horse to try and make this trade more desireable. However, I think even if your team is rebuilding, Getting rid of DJ for this trade or even a 1.02 instead of the 1.06 is a mistake.
DJ is a Tier 1 RB. Howard is a Tier 2. Pryor Was the WR1 in Cleveland, but is not fighting for receptions with Jackson and Garcon.
If I had the 1.02, Pryor and Howard, I would send that trade to Jason and laugh after he accepts it.
D Murray, D Booker, R Matthews
1.07, ‘18 2nd
Jason: So these last two are trades that were made in the dynasty league Ben and I play in together. This was a trade Ben made at the beginning of April. On the surface, I see a trade that seems lopsided. Murray and Matthews are both currently starters on their teams, with Matthews looking like the WR1 at the end of last season. Booker had a role last year but wasn’t especially effective, only getting 3.5 YPC. Now as is in all trades, team context matters. And Ben’s team is stacked. I’m going to let him tell you about how good his team is because every fantasy owner loves bragging about their best team. But I will say he has a juggernaut. So in this case, all of these players would be on his bench and possibly not even play during bye weeks. Yeah his team is that good. And yeah, it’s incredibly irritating.
My biggest concern here is the moving of roster depth. Ben’s team’s biggest weakness is if an injury were to happen he would be in serious trouble. Now this is the case with most teams but his especially. Acquiring the 1.07 will give him a shot at good RB/WR and he also has the 1.09 so he could theoretically replenish his depth. But the success rate of drafting in the back end of the 1st is under 50% so if you guess wrong twice you can be in a world of hurt. Personally I think you could have gotten more for these guys if you split the package up. But if Ben can package the 7th and 9th picks and find a way to get into the top 4 of the draft then this will all be considered a success. Alright Ben, brag about your team!
Ben: Let me brag about this first… ESPN doesn’t allow for you to send players to a team and receive nothing in return. So I received Tim Hightower. I know what you are thinking, “Big whoop he sucks,” and I TOTALLY agree! I was able to turn Tim Hightower into a 2.08 for this years draft.
Now If you read our review on the D. Henry and picks for Diggs, Perriman and Rawls you’d know I don’t expect Murray to be the starter by the end of the year or even to be on the Titans roster come next season. With all the teams in need of a RB this year, I don’t think there will be a lot of room for his salary on other teams. So I wanted to get as much value for Murray now as possible.
Matthews is 27, had his best season, the best season of his career. From everything I read, Tennessee is looking to get a WR at either the 5th (Mike Williams) or 18th (John Ross or Corey Davis) Pick. Either way, I see them taking the WR1 role in in Tennessee thus making Matthews flash in the pan.
Booker… The Broncos brought in Forsett to finish the year for them when Booker was just fine. They are not happy with him as a RB and I’ve read, they are looking to find a RB who has more speed.
Now comes my time to brag I hope, but I won’t do too much. In our startup we did it auction style. I got Brown, and Odell for my Wideouts, DJ and Freeman as my Backs, I also got Benjamin in the draft held him for a year while he was injured then traded him. I trade Benjamin and Sims for Murray, 2016 1st and 2nd and a 2017 1st. You’re thinking 1 of 2 things, “how stupid are the people in his league” or “how do you get people to accept your trades.” I find what people want and I exploit it.
Now I had picks up the wazoo for this coming draft. I had 3 first and 3 seconds. I traded 2 first and seconds for Gronk and Bennett. The one position I was weak at was the TE position. Now I’m set, as long as gronk can stay healthy. I also traded Theo Riddick for Donte Moncrief.
So here is what my starting team looks like:
QB – Ryan & Mariota
RB – DJ & Freeman
WR – Brown, Odell & Moncrief
TE – Gronk, Bennett & Fleener
DEF – Pats & Chiefs
K – Not sure, but does it matter?
Jason is right, my team is MONEY and is incredibly irritating and I love it. Thankfully I have some youth in the mix of my older players. Also my bench is near empty, but for some reason, our waivers have plenty of guys to pick up who can make a decent difference. On the bench as well as fill in in the event should someone go down.
Getting 1.07 2.08 and a ‘18 2nd for Murray, Booker and Matthews in my opinion is a win.
McCoy, Gillislee, 2.05, 2.09
J Hill, K White, 1.07
Ben: I like this trade for both teams. It just made sense. Jason got rid of Hill: a back that may or may not start week to week, White: Young WR with a broken Fibula last season, and the 1.07 and a need to get rid of an older running back and wanted a chance for youth in White and a first round pick.
We have to note this trade took place before the Pats signed Gillislee. But now that he is no longer McCoys handcuff, that make the trade tip in Jason’s favor. McCoy is a back that even at the age of 28, Only 3 seasons with less than 1,000 yards (1 was his rookie season, and another was his first season with Buffalo). McCoy has never really dealt with any major injuries so that is a plus on his side. Gillislee, only thing I like about his is he is a Patriot. With Brady as QB, almost any RB can become a top 10 producer. I’m not a fan of Gillislee, but after watching some film on him and see his stats while backing up McCoy, I’m for the lack of better terms…I’m intrigued, by what he may do.
On the Hill/White side,it made sense to get youth. His team is old and he needed to gain youth before he had to a total rebuild on his team. Hill is the better of the 2 backs (over Bernard) in terms of rushing. But loses when it comes to pass catching. 3 season in the league, ‘14 – 222 attempt 1,124 yards 9 TD’s, ‘15 – 223 attempts 794 yards 11 TD’s, ‘16 – 222 attempts 839 yards 9 TD’s. He is a “consistent” RB as far as getting the ball, but what happens when he gets the ball is left to be unknown.
I think even before Gillislee became a Patriot Jason still “won” the trade as acquiring McCoy makes him a bigger contender threat. In a league where everyone’s goal is win back to back, sometimes trying to win NOW is more beneficial than sitting on potential.
Jason: Well I have to agree with Ben, although I’m slightly biased. This trade for me was based mostly out of the context of my team’s makeup. My RB’s were Ware, Gore, Stewart, and Hill. I was in desperate need of a RB1. The rest of my team is in good shape, with Brees, Cooper, ARob, Watkins, and Olsen rounding out my starters with plenty of depth (other than RB) to go around. I liked what I saw in McCoy in Buffalo the past few seasons and am confident that he has a low-end RB1 floor in 2017.
The biggest give I had on my end was moving the 1.07. I, like many dynasty players, highly value my first round picks and don’t move them easily. As I looked at ADP for the upcoming rookie class, I realized what the 7th pick would be landing me. Likely it meant one of the TE’s, a RB like Kamara/Foreman, or a WR like Smith-Schuster or Ross. And while those guys intrigue me, mid-late first round picks only pan out at a 50% rate. It’s actually the same percentage that the entire 2nd round has so i felt like the difference between 1.07 and receiving 2 2nds was actually not a huge drop.
The icing on the cake has been Gillislee. I had him thrown in at the last minute just to cover myself in case of a McCoy injury. But I know have what many in the fantasy industry agree is the heir apparent to LeGarrette Blount in New England. Even if he doesn’t have that ceiling, I believe Gillislee has a low end RB2 floor with the amount of redzone work he likely sees.
For many fantasy teams you reach a point where you have to commit to going for the championship and mortgaging your future. The hope is always that you can do both, play for today and for tomorrow, but in many cases if you try to do both you end up just short. My hope is that McCoy is able to put me over the top and elevate me to the championship level and that I can pick up a value in the 2nd round of the draft.
Have any trades you want analyzed? Want to know if you won or lost your trade? Tweet @Jason_Nygren or @B_Schmitke and we’ll include your trade in our next installment of Dynasty Trades!