By: Gary VanDyke (Twitter: @HBogart27)
FFD260 Hit Rate: Bogart’s IDPs
Before I dive into my current hit and misses on my IDP takes for under the radar players I’d like to say a couple things. I am humbled by what I think has been a good year for myself first and foremost. I have had luck in the recent years in my personal leagues but this has always been on that personal level as I never shared by writing for a site before this year. I’ve never kept track per say, only enjoyed or moved on from my hits and misses.
I believe it was this past February that I joined my former site and began putting thoughts on paper to share with the fantasy community. It has been quite the ride if I must say so myself. I ask anyone that might read this article to keep in mind that I am humbled to be here doing what I love and only intend to spread what I can and be helpful to those who will listen. As any fantasy football writer or fantasy football owner in a league must know there can be a certain amount of cockiness to our games. I’m no different in those terms, as a writer I have to be. If we are not confident in ourselves how could we possibly pass on the information to those willing to listen? I stand before you as a humbled but cocky writer as I recap my “takes” from this past year and how they have played out at this point and time. Thank you to everyone out there that has been a part of me being able to do this. And thank you to those willing to listen.
After conversing with my boss here at FFD260 and deciding to go forward with my hit and miss article I struggled some to figure out how to lay the article out. I mean let’s face it there will always be the critics and this is one of those topics set up to be criticized. So after a couple dry runs at this article and a few posts on twitter in fantasy land I’ve decided to be straightforward with no “fluff” added. Readers are either going to take the information I lay out here and see I’m not making false claims or they are going to be critical on every detail. But the fact of the matter is I know when I wrote the “takes” and I also know at the time I was not seeing any other fantasy “takes” on these players. What I try to do in general in finding unknown or under the radar IDP players is take” on them before they become a “known” relevant player. It is not a common thing I see happening. Most of what I see in general is profiling on after the fact “known” players and the expectations of what kind of season they will have. And don’t take me wrong, there is a need for that type of article to get the information out. I just don’t mind taking the risk of being wrong and getting my “takes” out early as possible to help fantasy football owners to get a head of the game. I do a lot of research and have developed a method that works for me. This hasn’t been developed in my short life as a fantasy writer, this is something I have used for years in my own fantasy leagues.
“Burden Of Proof”
I will name the players and location of articles they were in with a “hit” or “miss”. Each and every article is dated. I know when they came out and I also know at the time I did not see any other “takes” on them at the time. I’m referring to “fantasy” takes of course. To complicate things a little more I will be adding my oldest takes from my former site I wrote for. Those articles are essential in my “hits’ and “misses”. I then lay the “burden of proof” on anyone to claim I’m not being honest.
At this point, I would like to thank John Orr and Dynasty Football Factory for sucking me into this industry. And thank FFD260 for currently giving me a format to do what I love doing. Thanks!
Some of the articles details are pretty well dead on. Some are not exactly how things played out. The purpose here is not whether I hit dead on. I would have to have psychic powers in order to do so every time. The purpose here is to say whether or not the players did or did not become relevant at this time. That is only half the battle when doing “takes” like I’m doing. The other half will be the production level that player produced for 2017. Again, not psychic, so we can address that in 2018. Just finding these players are hard enough to do in itself. As many of you may know from trying.
“Hit or Miss”
In order of article/date
Player – depth chart listing week one – status
*PT: Known Players 2017 Production “Take”
*I.R.: Only one player, was a “Take” before Injured Reserve
FINDING IDPS FOR 2017: VOLUME 1 / April 3, 2017 (DFF)
1. DAL. DT/DE DAVID IRVING – Pending/SSPD 4 games
2. DET. LB PAUL WORRILOW – Starting SLB – Hit
3. HOU. SS COREY MOORE – Starting SS – Hit
Article recap @FFD: FFD260 IDPs: Primed 6.0
& FFD260 IDPs: Primed 5.0
FINDING IDPS 2017: VOLUME 2 / May 3, 2017 (DFF)
4. BUF. DE Jerry Hughes – Pending/*PT
5. N.O. LB A.J. Klein – Starting SLB/Green Dot – Hit
Recap@FFD: FFD260 IDPs: Primed- IDP Finder
*The rest of these are all with FFD260
FFD260 IDPS: ROOKIES / June 20, 2017
8. N.Y.J. FS Marcus Maye – Pending / ADP vs. *PT
9. N.O. FS Marcus Williams – Pending / ADP vs. *PT
FFD260 IDPS: PRIMED / June 23, 2017
10. WAS. FS D.J. Swearinger – Starting FS – Hit
11. Min. LB Edmond Robinson – Cut – Miss
FFD260 IDPS: ROOKIES 2.0 / June 26, 2017
12. MIA. LB Raekwon McMillan – Starting MLB – Hit / *I.R.
FFD260 IDPS: ROOKIES 3.0 June 30, 2017
13. ATL. LB Duke Riley – Starting WLB – Hit
FFD260 IDPS: PRIMED 2.0 / July 16, 2017
14. LAC. LB Korey Toomer – Starting MLB – Hit
FFD260 IDPS: PRIMED 3.0 / July 23, 2017
15. CIN. LB Kevin Minter – Pending / *PT
*After NFL Camps Started
FFD260 IDPS: ROOKIES 4.0 / August 15, 2017
16. CHI. FS Eddie Jackson – Starting FS – Hit
After taking a deeper look at my takes I decide that I did eleven actual under-the-radar type “takes” and the rest are more production related type. Feel free to check them one by one. Those are players: (#) 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 16.
Then I reflect on the twitter poll I asked fellow fantasy football writers;
FF WRITERS ONLY: I'm writing my hit/miss article on IDPs. 1 player got SSPD 4 games early in offseason, do I count him? Typed Reply, please! pic.twitter.com/RjCkWb0f5x
— Gary VanDyke ll (@HBogart27) September 7, 2017
The poll was reflecting on Dallas DL David Irving. The “take” was published April 3. His SSPD for 4 games was announced officially on or around June 28. This reduces the final number to ten.
But I will do two final tallies of hit and misses here as I’m not excluding my “hit” on Rookie LB Raekwon McMillan. McMillan at the time was being touted as a possible two down SLB and my take was that he would be an every down player at MLB. He was announced as such and clearly within my “take” parameters before his injury. And the SSPD poll mirrors this same question.
I’ll say it again, it is hard enough to locate the under-the-radar players as it is. And also challenge anyone to prove that it isn’t.
10 players: 8 Hits and 2 Misses = 80%
11 players (With SSPD Irving): 8 Hits and 3 Misses = 73%
I’m Humbled to say, I’ve had a great year as far as I am concern. The last two years I’ve been doing this but not writing about it I have to guess I average about 50% – 60% hit rate. But this is purely me thinking back. And was happy as hell with that when it comes to plucking starting IDPs for nothing off the waiver wire or trading “beans” in a few cases possibly.
Thanks for reading and feel free to catch me on Twitter @HBogart27 anytime. I love to talk IDP and would love to assist anyway I can. And Bogart knows more than just IDP. Here for your every need when it comes to fantasy football.
May the fantasy football gods keep your rosters safe.