By: Miguel Chapeton (Twitter: @DynastyGuruFF)
Earlier today a Twitter follower asked me how Mike Williams stacked up against the Clemson WR’s that came before him using my WR Guru Score Model that I used here (For in-depth analysis on the metrics used, I suggest reading this first). This request really piqued my interest as I have been comparing Mike Williams to Martavis Bryant more than I have been to Sammy Watkins or DeAndre Hopkins as prospects, and was also curious where he would rank amongst the group.
So I decided to quickly put together a comp of the last 4 Clemson WR’s to come before Mike Williams and where he ranks among them, results below.
For those of you who have read my previous post (same as above) know about the Guru Score, for those of you who haven’t all you need to know is a perfect score is 4.79 and that it is heavily weighted by Dominator Rating and Phenom Index as these are the most important metrics for projecting future success. So to see Mike Williams, a highly rated prospect, score so low is concerning, why? Because since 2014, only 2 WR’s who scored less than 3.29 on the Guru Score have gone to have a Top 30 WR season (K. Benjamin and A. Hurns) and they each only had 1. Can Williams beat the odds? Maybe he can, but I will let someone else take that gamble.
In addition Williams does not meet the standards of a future WR 1 when it comes to both DR and PI but overall ranks slight better than Martavis Bryant and Cherone Peake. So does this mean he will be better than Bryant – who has shown flashes but still has not hit as a Top 30 WR?
I’m not so confident he will be better.
I have always said what I like about Williams is that he runs the Go route and high points the ball very well, making him a good RZ target. However if he is excellent at these things then I would want him to also be excellent at the 40yd dash, Vertical leap, and Height. Yet he ranks below Martavis in all 3 categories.
Finally, as a bonus I decided to also compared Williams to Kelvin Benjamin (see below), since they are of similar stature, but Benjamin wins again in Height and ties in Vertical. While Williams beats him in the 40yd dash, keep in mind Benjamin is 2 inches taller and weighs 22lbs more. So when we adjust for height/weight/speed, Kelvin comes out better than Williams with score of 112, which is excellent. Williams does beat him with a higher Guru Score but its not due DR or PI.
So in the end Mike Williams is basically Martavis Bryant/Kelvin Benjamin light, but being drafted in the 1st rd. I know there are a lot of Mike Williams fans out there buying the hype but again he fails to really make a case for why he deserves a 1st rd NFL grade or in our case a the top WR in rookie drafts.
In my opinion, Mike Williams is not only NOT the best WR in this draft class, he’s not even the best WR to come out of Clemson in the last 4 years.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions or comments feel free to leave them below. Otherwise find me on Twitter @DynastyGuruFF, give me a follow if you want to read my future work.