Player Analysis: Doug Baldwin
By: Mason Dodd (Twitter: @buildthedynasty)
As the clear number one option for Russel Wilson and still in his prime (28 years old), Doug Baldwin has been the model of consistency over his career, yet is still being undervalued by the Dynasty community. He is the 28th overall player and the 18th WR coming off the board in Dynasty League Football’s March ADP. Being drafted behind Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Howard, and Dalvin Cook and right in front of Stefon Diggs, Doug Baldwin is currently a player that every dynasty football owner should be trying to acquire either through trade or a startup draft for his floor and ceiling far exceed his price.
The 2017 season will mark Baldwin’s 7th year in the league. Its hard to find a player who has played that many seasons and has missed less games than Baldwin has. Having only missed two games in his six-year career, he has proven that he is the last person that you need to be concerned with regarding injuries. Not only should you not have to worry about Baldwin missing any games, you also don’t need to worry about who is throwing him the ball. This past season has proven that QB play is a MASSIVE component on predicting future receiver success (Robinson in Jacksonville and Hopkins in Houston) and Baldwin is tied to an elite QB in Russel Wilson for seasons to come.
Although it took years for Baldwin to break out as the clear-cut alpha dog receiver on his team, he has not looked back since. In the last two seasons, he has finished as a top 12 WR in PPR leagues both years. He finished as the 10th receiver in 2015 and the 8th receiver in 2016 in total PPR points. Along with two top 12 finishes in points per game out of receivers who played at least 10 games (#12 in 2015 and #9 in 2016). Not only is he producing elite numbers, he is doing it with a limited number of targets. He finished the 2015 season with 122 targets (30th in the NFL) and finished the 2016 season with 146 targets (12th in the NFL). This means that he is producing efficiently with the targets that he is getting, and if he sees an increase in volume it could directly correlate with an increase in production. This raises the question of whether he has the potential to see an increase in targets this year. His targets have increased every year for the past 5 years, and Jimmy Graham’s 95 targets from last year should decrease, which could lead to more targets to go Baldwin’s way.
Doug Baldwin is a guy who you lock into your lineup and don’t need to think about, unlike some receivers being valued ahead of him, who seem to be a game time decision on a weekly basis. And with his week to week consistency in one of the league’s top offenses, we can expect him to have top 12 finishes for at least the next two years and after that, he should still be good for maybe one or two more top 24 finishes.
After realizing that you have been undervaluing Doug Baldwin you are probably going to look to trade for him, so here are some recent deals that I have seen which may help you figure out what to offer for him.
Doug Baldwin and 2.12 > 2017 1.10 and 2017 2.03
Thomas Rawls and Doug Baldwin > 2018 1st and Tyler Eifert
Doug Baldwin > 2018 1st and Kenyan Drake
For Redraft Leagues, Doug Baldwin should be approached as a low-end WR1, or a high end WR2. Based on his ADP and the big name players that go around him in drafts, Baldwin is someone who can give you excellent production for a fairly cheap price. If you end up with Baldwin as your number 2 WR, you should be feeling good about your WR situation.
In Dynasty Leagues, Baldwin is a WR that I would feel comfortable keeping for a few more years, or going out and buying him if you need a WR. With clear proven talent, consistent production, and an excellent situation, it is time we give Doug Baldwin the credit he has earned.