By: Mason Dodd (Twitter: @buildthedynasty)
Rob Gronkowski is arguably the greatest Fantasy Football Tight End of all time; nobody has ever changed NFL defensive game plans the way Gronk has. Although he will likely go down as the GOAT at the TE position, he is far past his prime and with his ADP still in the top two rounds of startup drafts, you should be trading him as soon as you can. Gronk still holds a lot of value in the Dynasty community with an ADP of 21, ahead of Doug Baldwin, Alshon Jeffery, Leonard Fournette and right behind Keenan Allen and Todd Gurley. The reason you should be trading him for this price is because his long list of injuries through his career dating back to college. The return that you can get on Gronk is excellent right now, and in the long run, your team should benefit from it.
Gronk will be turning 28 next month and has not played a full season since he was 22 years old, that’s 6 seasons! He has not played a full season worth of games since 2011. Let that sink in. His latest injury ended his season in week 12 against the Jets. It marked his 11th injury and caused him to have his 8th surgery from injuries. This was his 4th back injury and he has an ACL tear to go along with them. Ultimately, Gronk proves that some players are injury prone and at this point, you can’t trust him to be a guy that you can plug into your lineup for more than 8 weeks in a season.
Now you may be thinking… “I just saw that Gronk was at Wrestle Mania, surely he’s fine” But Bill Belichick’s actions this off season have hinted that the Patriots are not going to be relying on Gronk for the 2017 season. Belichick has given up significant draft capitol to add passing options for Tom Brady. He traded a 4th round pick for Dwayne Allen and a 1st and 3rd for Brandin Cooks. This hints that Belichick may doubt that Gronk will be able to have a large workload in 2017. If Belichick doesn’t believe in Gronk, neither should we as Fantasy owners. We all have seen the two TE sets that the Patriots love to run, but it is also clear that the system in New England tends to make the best out of whatever TE they choose to plug in. Neither Dwayne Allen or Martellus Bennett are as explosive and valuable as Gronk, but we all saw just how good Bennett was when Gronk was out this year.
Gronkowski should still be viewed as the top TE in Redraft and a top 3 option in Dynasty, arguably still the top value at TE in Dynasty. He is still a monster when he is on the field, but the risk is too high to be drafting him where his current ADP is. If he falls to you in the 4th round of a startup draft or the 3rd round of a Redraft league, you have to consider him. As his current ADP is in the 2nd round of Dynasty draft, his price is way too high and you should be trying to sell him for that price if someone is willing to buy. The bottom line is this, Gronk’s value is as close to an all-time high as it ever will be, take his age and injury history into account, and it is highly unlikely that his value with be this high moving forward.
As a Gronk owner you can help your team right now and for years to come by selling him before the 2017 season. Here are some trades that the Dynasty Twitter world has seen recently:
Gronkowski > Hunter Henry, Derrick Henry, and Jimmy Graham
Gronkowski > O.J. Howard and Tyler Eifert
Gronkowski > Doug Baldwin and 2017 2.06