Prospect Success Indicator: How It’s Calculated
Welcome to how the Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) is calculated. Below are all the metrics used to calculate PSI, if you want to learn more about certain metrics I have linked some back to their original source material. Enjoy!
Click here to access the WR PSI data!
Breakout Age (BA)
BA is defined by their age at midpoint of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating at or above 20% – This was pioneered by Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele first examined each wide receiver’s breakout age on RotoViz.com. A Breakout Age under 20 is exceptional.
Successful Wide Receiver Measurements (SWRM)
Jacob Feldman of DLF wrote an article in 2012 detailing out what the average Combine/Pro Day metrics were for the average Top 25 WR at the time. For a couple of reasons, age of article/data and this Harvard Article on the Combine and WR’s, I weighted this the least amount across all metrics.
-Lbs per In, Hand Size, Height, 40yd dash, Vertical Leap, Broad jump, 2yd Shuttle, 3 Cone
-Top 25 WR’s hit on a least 7 of those above on average
Phenom Index (PI)
The Phenom Index is calculated by looking at player’s age and their final season market share of receiving yards and bolting them together using z-scores. Typically, I like to think about this as a filter for finding young, talented players who could emerge to be among the game’s best within three seasons. The baseline here is 1.98 or above for WR’s.
Dominator Rating (DR)
The DR looks at the market share of a team’s passing offense–yards and touchdowns– for which a player is responsible, ignores age. In terms of predicting NFL success, any number over .50 – which roughly corresponds to having caught 50% of your team’s yards and TDs – projects as an NFL superstar or Top 10 overall pick value. .45-.50 is excellent (roughly Top 15 pick value), .40-.45 very good (Top 20 pick), .35-.40 (late first, early second), .30-35 (second round to third round), below .30 (middle round pick). Of course, DR in isolation only provides part of the picture.
Bench Press (BP)
According to the HSCA the bench press was the only statistically relevant drill that could predict future success. WR’s have to be able to get off press coverage, push-off DB’s (without getting flagged) and block, right? The baseline here is 10 or more reps for WR’s.
Height Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HasS)
Created by Bill Barnwell, HaSS is scaled with 100 being a solid draftable score, anything over 110 being excellent, and anything over 120 suggesting complete physical dominance for WR’s 6’1” or taller, not as impactful for shorter WR’s.
Prospect Success Indicator: This is the cumulative score I have based on how each WR ranked across all the metrics listed above. Here’s how I weighted the metrics to get to my final rankings: DR and PI at 40% each, BP at 15% and SWRM at 5%. BA is accounted for well enough within PI, and HaaS is only good to look at for those WR’s at/over 6’1” from my understanding. This will need to be refined as time goes on but for now works well I think.
Who is Miguel Chapeton?
Miguel is originally from San Francisco, CA and an avid 49ers fan. He currently lives in Minnesota where he enjoys the city/outdoor lifestyle that Minneapolis has to offer. Miguel is also an avid NFL and Fantasy Football enthusiast with a particular love and focus on wide receivers. He’s the creator of the Prospect Success Indicator used to measure incoming WR’s to the NFL.
Follow Miguel on Twitter: @DynastyGuruFF