By: Miguel Chapeton (Twitter: @DynastyGuruFF)
A week ago I ran a Twitter poll asking what people wanted to read next and this topic won out, so for all you that voted here you go!
To every Yin there is a Yang, a couple weeks back I wrote this article on the Top 12 WR’s to Draft based on a cumulative Guru Score, I pulled the data of every WR to attend the combine this year and these were the results of the lowest WR’s to grade out this year.
Below are the metrics I used to get to my score
1. Breakout Age (BA) – is defined by their age at midpoint of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating at or above 20% – This was pioneered by Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele first examined each wide receiver’s breakout age on RotoViz.com. A Breakout Age under 20 is exceptional.
2. Successful Wide Receiver Measurements (SWRM) – Jacob Feldman of DLF wrote an article in 2012 detailing out what the average Combine/Pro Day metrics were for the average Top 25 WR at the time. For a couple of reasons, age of article/data and this Harvard Article on the Combine and WR’s, I weighted this the least amount across all metrics.
o Lbs per In, Hand Size, Height, 40yd dash, Vertical Leap, Broad jump, 2yd Shuttle, 3 Cone
o Top 25 WR’s hit on a least 7 of those above on average
3. Phenom Index (PI) – The Phenom Index is calculated by looking at player’s age and their final season market share of receiving yards and bolting them together using z-scores. Typically, I like to think about this as a filter for finding young, talented players who could emerge to be among the game’s best within three seasons. The baseline here is 1.98 or above for WR’s.
4. Dominator Rating (DR) – looks at the market share of a team’s passing offense–yards and touchdowns– for which a player is responsible, ignores age. In terms of predicting NFL success, any number over .50 – which roughly corresponds to having caught 50% of your team’s yards and TDs – projects as an NFL superstar or Top 10 overall pick value. .45-.50 is excellent (roughly Top 15 pick value), .40-.45 very good (Top 20 pick), .35-.40 (late first, early second), .30-35 (second round to third round), below .30 (middle round pick). Of course, DR in isolation only provides part of the picture.
5. Bench Press (BP) – According to the HSCA the bench press was the only statistically relevant drill that could predict future success. WR’s have to be able to get off press coverage, push-off DB’s (without getting flagged) and block, right? The baseline here is 10 or more reps for WR’s.
6. Height Weight Adjusted Speed Score (HasS) – Created by Bill Barnwell, HaSS is scaled with 100 being a solid draftable score, anything over 110 being excellent, and anything over 120 suggesting complete physical dominance for WR’s 6’1” or taller, not as impactful for shorter WR’s.
7. Guru Score: This is the cumulative score I have based on how each WR ranked across all the metrics listed above. Here’s how I weighted the metrics to get to my final rankings: DR and PI at 40% each, BP at 15% and SWRM at 5%. BA is accounted for well enough within PI, and HaaS is only good to look at for those WR’s at/over 6’1” from my understanding. This will need to be refined as time goes on but for now works well I think. So using this Guru Score I ranked each prospect below.
For the most part I haven’t heard of most of these guys and don’t expect for you to have either. However maybe one of these guys may have gone to your alma mater, were drafted/ signed as a UDFA by your favorite team or maybe you saw them on ESPN’s top 10 plays once and therefore are thinking of drafting them or picking them up off the waiver wire.
Whatever the reason may be that could lead you to adding these guys to your roster, note this. No player since 2014 with scores this low have ever been valuable in Fantasy Football. These guys project as the definition of roster cloggers, so let your fellow league mates add these guys while you add someone – hopefully – more valuable.
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions or comments feel free to leave them here or you can also find me on Twitter @DynastyGuruFF, give me a follow.